We Tried to Recreate Claude’s Hedge Fund Demo. Here’s What Actually Happened.

There’s a cottage industry forming on LinkedIn and tech Twitter around a very specific kind of AI hype:“AI is now a McKinsey consultant.”“AI just did a hedge fund-grade DCF.”“AI is now your equity research intern — for $20/month.”

This week, we watched a polished demo from Anthropic’s Claude showing off exactly that kind of scenario: a fully autonomous agent analyzing a public company, building out an investment thesis, and even running a valuation model. The implication was clear — this is hedge fund-level work, now available to anyone with a keyboard and a Claude subscription. The demonstration was shared by AI Influencer, Linas Beliunas.

Naturally, we wanted to try it ourselves.

Original prompt in Claude's demonstration

I copied the prompt, made some adjustments, and ran the experiment using IONQ, one of the more speculative names in our AI SC 15 Index.

Here’s what happened. I realize there may have been prior setups and configurations (like access to Daloopa and other report templates) that made it easier for Claude in the demonstration but wanted to see how it acts straight out of the box.

See the full report from Claude below. Claude did a decent job summarizing IONQ’s most recent earnings call — it extracted narrative themes cleanly and grouped updates in a way that resembled equity research language. But when it came to historical data, it simply didn't do it. Despite financial figures being readily available online, Claude substituted them with vague filler like:

When it attempted a DCF valuation, things didn't get better. Yes, it provided assumptions and even a methodology, but the core premise was flawed. IONQ is still deep in R&D mode, with over $300M in operating losses last year and no meaningful cash flow to model. Yet Claude went ahead anyway, forecasting free cash flow for 2025 out of thin air — and applying a 75% CAGR to it. It spat out a $7/share valuation — compared to the stock’s current ~$40 price.

As a basis for hedge fund decision-making, it wasn’t even close to competent.

TheMarketAI.com Take:

We’ve written before that AI’s current trajectory may be too fast for most startups to keep up, but this is the inverse: tools that look brilliant in demos often fall apart under slight real-world variation.

In theory, Claude can replicate equity analyst workflows. In practice, it needs strong human oversight, especially with early-stage or unprofitable tech companies where valuation frameworks aren’t straightforward.

The “AI can now do this” hype is everywhere — but recreating it is often a different story.

Full Claude report based on IONQ the Prompt:  

IONQ Inc Strategic Analysis & Financial Comparison

Executive Summary

Based on the Q1 2025 earnings call and recent analyst reports, IONQ Inc (NASDAQ: IONQ) has emerged as a leading quantum computing company with stronger fundamentals compared to its primary competitor Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI). The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of $7.6 million, beating guidance midpoint, with nearly $700 million in cash reserves providing a "fortress balance sheet" for future investments.

Key Strategic Highlights from Q1 2025 Earnings Call

Financial Performance

• Q1 2025 Revenue: $7.6 million (exceeded guidance midpoint)

• EPS: -$0.14 (beat analyst forecast of -$0.25)

• Net Loss: $32.3 million (improvement from prior periods)

• Cash Position: Nearly $700 million in cash equivalents

Strategic Initiatives

1. Quantum Networking Focus: Building quantum internet and secure communications infrastructure

2. Space-based Quantum Key Distribution: Developing satellite-based quantum communication systems

3. Strategic Acquisitions: Leveraging strong cash position for growth through M&A

Competitive Positioning: IONQ vs. Rigetti Computing

Technology Differentiation

• IONQ: Uses trapped ion approach with 99.9% 2-qubit gate fidelity

• Rigetti: Uses superconducting qubits with 99.5% fidelity

Market Position Comparison

Metric	IONQ	Rigetti
Technology	Trapped Ion	Superconducting Qubits
2-Qubit Gate Fidelity	99.9%	99.5%
Revenue Generation	Higher, with real commercial deals	Lower revenue base
Cash Reserves	~$700 million	Significantly lower
Market Maturity	More established commercial presence	Earlier stage

Analyst Consensus

Multiple analyst reports from Q2-Q3 2025 consistently favor IONQ over Rigetti, citing:

• Stronger revenue generation capability

• Superior cash position

• Better commercial traction

• Higher gate fidelity performance

Historical Performance (Past 4 Quarters)

Revenue Trend

• Q1 2025: $7.6 million

• Q4 2024: Data pending full year results

• Q3 2024: Continued growth trajectory

• Q2 2024: Building momentum in commercial deals

Key Operational Metrics

• Customer acquisition accelerating

• Expanding partnerships in defense and commercial sectors

• Improving quantum system performance metrics

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Assumptions

• Revenue Growth Rate: 75% CAGR (2025-2030)

• Terminal Growth Rate: 3%

• WACC: 12% (reflecting high-risk nature)

• Tax Rate: 21% (when profitable)

DCF Model

Revenue Projections ($ millions)

• 2025E: $35

• 2026E: $61

• 2027E: $107

• 2028E: $187

• 2029E: $328

• 2030E: $574

Free Cash Flow Projections ($ millions)

• 2025E: -$85

• 2026E: -$65

• 2027E: -$40

• 2028E: $15

• 2029E: $95

• 2030E: $201

Terminal Value: $2,814 million

Present Value Calculation:

• PV of FCF (2025-2030): -$85 million

• PV of Terminal Value: $902 million

• Enterprise Value: $817 million

• Add: Cash: $700 million

• Less: Debt: $0

• Equity Value: $1,517 million

Fair Value per Share: ~$7.00 (based on ~217M shares outstanding)

Investment Recommendation

Strengths

1. Technology leadership with superior gate fidelity

2. Strong balance sheet with $700M cash

3. Growing commercial traction

4. First-mover advantage in trapped ion quantum computing

Risks

1. High cash burn rate

2. Technology still in early commercialization phase

3. Intense competition from both startups and tech giants

4. Regulatory uncertainties in quantum computing

Conclusion

IONQ presents a more compelling investment case than Rigetti Computing in 2025, supported by:

• Superior technical metrics

• Stronger financial position

• Better commercial momentum

• Clear strategic vision for quantum networking

The DCF analysis suggests potential upside from current levels, though investors should be prepared for significant volatility given the nascent stage of the quantum computing industry.

Note: This analysis is based on publicly available information as of August 2025. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.